We cannot let the Kyoto debacle happen again

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4 February 2007David King

Open any newspaper and the chances are you'll find an item on climate change. Friday saw yet another flurry of coverage with the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report on the science of climate change. What makes this report stand out from others?

The IPCC is a global body established in 1988 to provide independent, scientific advice on climate change. Friday's report is not new research, but, rather, a stock-take of the entire body of knowledge that exists on climate change. It builds on three previous reports and incorporates results from a further six years of research.

The report is the first of three to be published by the IPCC this year. Later reports will focus on the impacts of climate change and on the actions required to address the problem. This process has involved more than 2,500 scientists and 130 countries.

Where the lengthy, rigorous process of the IPCC comes into its own is in bringing together the different pieces of evidence from many strands of science and balances them to give as clear a view as possible on the overall state of knowledge. It is a process underpinned by extensive expert challenge and review. The resulting report is, I believe, a major achievement and a real advance in our understanding of climate change.

The last time the IPCC reported in this way was in 2001. Since then, climate science has moved on apace, with a vast increase in climatic data and ever-more sophisticated and numerous climate models to help us understand and predict climate change. Perhaps most significantly, we are studying a process that is happening in real time. Not only has science progressed in the last six years but so, too, has the 'experiment' we are effectively carrying out on our planet. As the impacts become larger, their cause becomes clearer.

The IPCC report's findings reinforce some stark messages. The evidence for warming is now unequivocal. There has been a 0.74C rise in global temperatures over the past century, much of this occurring in the last few decades.

The direct link between human activities and global warming is more clearly established than ever. This link can now be drawn not only with global atmospheric temperature, but also with the warming in the oceans, with sea level rise and in the pattern of atmospheric warming. The report confirms that warming resulting from human activity is around 10 times greater than that from changes in the Sun's activity. We have caused most of the recent observed warming.

For sea level, the previous IPCC report projected a rise by the end of this century of between 9cm and 88cm. This uncertainty has now been reduced to between 18cm and 59cm, though factors not well understood may yet mean that this range could be revised upwards.

The IPCC concludes that global temperature will rise a further 1.1-6.4C by the end of the century, influenced by how emissions grow. Well below the higher end of this range, the impacts would be devastating. The case for action is established beyond any reasonable doubt for all but the most ardent or ill-informed sceptics.

So how should we respond to this IPCC report? It does, in reality, offer few surprises. The increasingly worrying trend in the evidence has been clear to see. The report's value, I think, is in providing governments with a coherent and comprehensive assessment of the challenge we face.

The message for policy-makers is clear: climate change is not a passing fancy for environmentalists. It represents a challenge on a scale that will affect societies and economies across the world.

But I don't believe that it is only governments that should hear these messages. As individuals, we can make adjustments that together can have a big impact. As consumers, we can transform markets through our purchasing choices. And as concerned citizens, we can encourage governments, nationally and locally, to show leadership.

It is important to remember that, beyond the next two decades or so, the future severity of climate change and its impacts lies in our hands. We have the knowledge, technologies and capability to transform our economies, if we have the commitment to do so.

This is set to be a critical year. With the UK government continuing to lead, I am optimistic progress can be made towards the international framework we need post-2012, when the first Kyoto period ends. New impetus from the EU and G8 nations will be essential as we move towards the formal negotiations to be held in Bali towards the end of 2007; we must continue to engage emerging economies such as China and India.

Chancellor Merkel has taken climate change as a key theme for the German G8 presidency and there will be a discussion on it at the G8 summit. Over the next few months, we must take forward discussions on realistic stabilisation levels as well as developing a framework for the creation of a global carbon price and incentivise investment in low-carbon technologies.

The IPCC's work is vital in providing a solid foundation of evidence on which these crucial decisions can be made. We have lost 17 years since Kyoto. Now we have to act.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/print/0,,329705380-102273,00.html