Rahul Mahajan; Empire Notes; March 16, 2004
[Note: This is one of the March 14 entries of Empire Notes, a daily updated blog by Rahul Mahajan, a frequent ZNet writer.]
March 14, 6:10 pm EST. I was waiting until the returns were in from Spain. Well, with 79% of the vote counted, the Socialist Party declared a surprise victory and Mariano Rajoy, Aznar's handpicked successor as head of the Popular Party, conceded defeat. Projections were that the Socialists would have 164 out of 350 seats in the Parliament and that the Popular Party would fall from 183 to 147.What an amazing political dynamic emerged in Spain. First, in what is pretty close to an unprecedented event, an estimated 11 million people came out to protest terrorism. There were also 5,000 people who protested Aznar, calling for him to come clean and blaming him for his support of the Iraq war. They were dispersed by the police with nightsticks and tear gas on that day of solidarity for all Spaniards.This just prompted further protests yesterday. Both Aznar and Rajoy were jeered by protesters as they went to vote. And 62% of the electorate voted, as opposed to 55% last time in 2000.The big question politically was who was responsible for the attacks. Here's a summary of the evidence for the claim that it was al-Qaeda (am I missing anything? Let me know):
On the other side is the claim that the explosive used (titadine, a concentrated form of dynamite) is commonly used by ETA, and the arrest in December of an ETA volunteer who was planning to bomb a train. Despite this, to my mind, fairly overwhelming evidence that it was al-Qaeda, Aznar continued to insist that it was ETA. The most interesting thing about it is this. If it was ETA, this would likely help the Popular Party in the polls, since it has taken a tough anti-ETA stand. On the other hand, if it was al-Qaeda, then many Spaniards would blame Aznar, saying it was because of Spain's illegitimate involvement in the illegitimate occupation of Iraq and its support for the war.Obviously, there was a sharp swing in the turnout and the results because many people decided to punish Aznar for making them more of an al-Qaeda target. This is fascinating. As the blogger Atrios pointed out a few days ago, conventional wisdom is that a terrorist attack in the United States a few days before the election would have the opposite effect, of giving Bush a boost.Watch for the right wing to start bloviating about Spanish "appeasement." Instead of casting it as a question of whether or not you want to get tough on terrorists, we need to start recasting this very serious question as whether we want to take steps that will actually weaken al-Qaeda and affiliated organizations or do we want to continue in this mode of strengthening them that we've had since 9/11? The Spanish people are showing the way -- and doing it just days after their horrific tragedy. Perhaps, two and a half years after ours, we can start to learn too.
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